What after Zawahiri's death?

The relationship between the United States and the Taliban is at crossroads after US President Joe Biden announced on Monday the death of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of al-Qaeda and one of the world’s most wanted terrorists, who, alongside the group’s founder, Osama bin Laden, was in charge of the attacks of September 11, 2001. 

How did the attack happen? 

The attack against Zawahiri is the first known counterterrorism strike in Afghanistan since the withdrawal of US forces last August. A drone fired two Hellfire missiles at Zawahiri while he was on the balcony of a safe house in Shirpur, where he had been living with members of his family, according to The Washington Post. 

The Shirpur neighborhood in central Kabul, which is owned by the Afghan Defense Ministry and was transformed into a residential area of large houses with senior Afghan officials and wealthy individuals living there, witnessed a powerful blast that terrified its residents, The Washington Post reported. 

The intelligence community spent months tracking Zawahiri, observing his movements and behavior, and building a model of the safe house, as well as briefing Biden on how a strike could be implemented with the least chances of killing any other occupants or civilians, an American senior administration official told The Washington Post. 

Who is Ayman Al-Zawahiri?

Ayman Al-Zawahiri was a 71-year-old Egyptian doctor who took over al-Qaeda after the death of Osama bin Laden in 2011. Both him and Bin Laden were said to be the masterminds of the 9/11 attacks that killed tens of thousands of people. After the death of Bin Laden in a raid by US forces in Pakistan in 2011, Zawahiri became the figurehead leader of al-Qaeda, according to BBC. 

Zawahiri played a pivotal role in turning al-Qaeda into a more lethal terrorism organization. He was accused of the bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, according to The Washington Post. 

Doha Agreement 

The US-Taliban deal, or Doha agreement, was a peace agreement signed by both the United States and the Taliban on February 29, 2020 to bring an end to America’s longest war — the nearly two-decade-old conflict that began after the September 11 attacks. The agreement set a timetable for the final withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, according to The New York Times. 

The Doha Agreement requires the Taliban not to allow any security threats to the US and its allies. It also commits the Taliban to prevent any terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda, from operating within the Afghan territory against US interests, according to VAO News. 

However, the ISIS has been growing within Afghanistan’s territory and has alleged frequent attacks against the Taliban and civilian targets, and al-Qaeda has appeared to maintain strong ties with the Taliban government, The Washington Post reported. 

What is next?

The US has warned its citizens against possible anti-American violence following the killing of Zawahiri. His death could provoke al-Qaeda supporters or other linked terror groups to target US facilities and personnel, said the State Department.

“The death of Zawahiri is a victory for Biden,” Abdullah Hassan, former director of the Middle East News Agency (MENA), told Jusoor Post, adding that al-Qaeda is expected to have a fierce reaction against American interests to prove their power and existence. 

“Terrorism is short-lived because it contradicts human values. The world has more problems to care about like the economic crisis, water security, etc.,” Hassan stressed.

The number two man in al-Qaeda, Mohammed Salah al-Din Zeidan, nicknamed Saif al-Adl, is expected to top the list of candidates to succeed Zawahiri. He is believed to be in Iran, according to United Nations reports.

Mohamed Salah El-Din Zeidan was an officer in the Egyptian Special Forces then joined the Egyptian Jihad group in the 1980s. He was arrested in May 1987 for attempting to overthrow the regime in Egypt. In 1989, he fled to Sudan then to Afghanistan to join al-Qaeda, Alarabiya reported. 

Washington accuses Saif al-Adl of establishing training camps in Sudan, Somalia and Afghanistan and of being involved in the 1998 bombings of its embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam. He also prepared some of the 9/11 hijackers and appeared on the FBI's Most Wanted Terrorist List. Washington offered a $10 million reward for information leading to his arrest, according to Alarabiya. 

Hassan Nafeaa, professor of political science at Cairo University, told Jusoor Post that the death of Zawahiri after the Doha Agreement will put the United States, Qatar, and the Taliban in a real crisis, adding that the US had withdrawn from Afghanistan in a defeated way, but now the US administration and Biden are proving their strength to the world. 

“Breaching an international agreement has repercussions. I think the US will attempt to contain the consequences of this operation, especially that al-Qaeda is getting weaker,” Nafeaa added.